Covid Mathematics

In the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic 2 years ago, a large number of people were infected, very quickly.  Out of those infected, many were suffering from serious symptoms, and many died.  Based on the numbers available, 2-3 % of the infected died.    Data were scarce because the virus was new.  But it was obviously at least more than an order of magnitude worst than the normal influenza that we were familiar with. It was truly scary.  

Now, two years later, many of whose infected do not seem to exhibit any symptoms.  Nobody would know (including the patient themselves) that they are infected until they are tested.  Many simply recover from it and keep on living as if nothing had happened.  Some do suffer from mild to serious symptoms, and some die.  But the percentage of hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than earlier.  Again, based on published data, the death rates (among the infected) in the past 28 days seem to hover around 0.1 to 0.2 percent in many countries.  The data seems to be broadly comparable to relevant data for seasonal influenza, given the great variability of the data among countries and methods of data collection.  

If this is indeed true, perhaps the covid-19 virus should be dealt with in a different way, compared to what went on before?  Perhaps we should concentrate more on the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths?  And not so much on the numbers of infections - as appears in government reports, newspapers, etc., and as a basis of decisions on social distancing and other measures of control?  Certainly preventing hospitalisations is easier but require different strategies?  What are the numbers of cases of serious symptoms, hospitalisations and deaths anyway?  Why aren’t these and implications discussed?

The pandemic may look very different if another mathematical model is used.  

On the other hand, the vaccines seem to be working.  Perhaps not so much in preventing people from getting infected.  But in preventing serious symptoms and deaths.  Perhaps the more creative strategies can be developed in consideration of that reality? 

If this is true, perhaps we should concentrate more on getting people vaccinated? Particularly for those most vulnerable - those who are old and suffering from other ailments already?  For example, the same advertisements urging the elderly to be vaccinated have been shown on TV seemingly forever.  Are they still effective?  Can more creative advertisement and strategies be developed?  Aren’t there some ways to make it easier for the elderly to be vaccinated?  Subtler ways to convince them, or their family, of the benefits of vaccination?  What about the children?  Why aren’t there more genuine discussions on these matters?