Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Where is the car?

You are in a game show where there are three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the other doors, goats. After you pick a door, the host, who knows what is behind all the doors, opens one of the unchosen doors, which reveals a goat. He then asks you, “Do you want to switch to the other unopened door?” Is it to your advantage to make the switch?

A lot of people, including many PhDs and mathematics professors, say it is evident that whether you change your choice or not, your chances of winning are 50/50.

But Leonard Mlodinow says in his book “The Drunkard’s Walk” it is better to switch. Do you agree? Actually Mlodinow was citing Marilyn vos Savant, a fascinating person herself.

I will post the answer tomorrow. In the mean time, feel free to read Mlodinow’s book. It is a fascinating introduction to probability. He makes a dry and difficult subject fun. People who are teaching probability may find some useful cases there.



8 comments:

k said...

Switch-> chances of winning are 50/50
Not Switch -> no chance to win

StephenC said...

eh ... I think you are wrong.

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